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THE BETTING ODDS

One of the first questions that arises when starting in the world of sports betting has to do with how betting odds work.


There are three types of quotas (decimal, fractional and American), but we will focus the explanation around the first ones, since they are the most used and recognized worldwide.


The odd estimates the probability that a given outcome will occur. In the case of a successful forecast, it will serve to find the profit obtained from said success.


For example, if the chosen odd is 2.00, it means that the bookmaker pays €2 for each euro wagered. So, if you bet €10, your gross win will be €20 and your net win will be €10.


Read on below to know a little more about this topic.

  • Calculation of betting odds

    The bookmakers carry out the most exhaustive studies until finally arriving at the correct odds for each event.


    Taking the example of a football match, each company has professionals specially dedicated to collecting all kinds of prior information (injured, suspended, line-ups, statistics, etc.).


    That way they get the best odds in terms of possible outcomes.


    To find out the probability that the bookmaker assigns to each result, you have to carry out the following formula: 100/quota.


    So, imagining a game between Barcelona and Granada, if the odds corresponding to Barcelona is 1.22, it means that, for that operator, the Catalan team has an 81.96% chance of winning. This is called implied probability.


    In this sense, experts affirm that you only have to bet when it is considered that the real possibilities are higher than those stipulated by the bookmaker according to this formula.

  • Betting odds and probability

    The probability that each installment constitutes will help us understand how traders make their profits.


    The equation is very simple and, continuing with the soccer game, it is enough to calculate the percentages of the three available alternatives and add them up. We will find that it always exceeds 100% and precisely there is the profit for the company.


    To materialize the previous explanation in an example, imagine that Real Madrid visits Atlético de Madrid in the Santander League and that the odds are as follows: 3.50 for the local win, 3.00 for the tie and 2.25 for the away win.


    When carrying out the formula detailed above, the quotas would translate into 28.57%, 33.33% and 44.44%, respectively. The sum of these three percentages gives 106.34% and it is this surplus (6.34% in this case) that will determine the dividends of the bookmakers, whose margins in this matter are generally between 6% and 10%.

  • Odds variation

    Currently it is very common for bookmakers to change their odds on more than one occasion between publishing the event and it starting.


    This situation strictly responds to the movements that users make.


    Taking into account the previous development, we understand that these companies need a balance between the different possibilities that an event itself presents.


    Therefore, if many players bet on a favorite at odds of 2.00, the value of the odds will go down in order to compensate.


    In a way, the bookmaker will seek to persuade its customers to invest so that the money played in each of the two or three alternatives (depending on the sport) is proportional.

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